We know that Jacob Young is one of the best defensive outfielders in the sport. He was robbed of a Gold Glove last season, and should be a perennial contender for the award going forward. However, his offensive potential is much less certain.
In 2024, Jacob Young was a joy to watch roaming around in center field. He made plenty of extraordinary plays. However, what impressed me the most about him was his ability to make tough plays look routine. On plays where other outfielders would have to dive, Young just cruised to the ball to make a seemingly routine play. That is how he complied 20 outs above average.
It was never supposed to be this way for Jacob Young. He was a 7th round pick, and far from the star player on his own college team, the Florida Gators. However, his combination of speed, defense, and contact hitting got him through the Minor Leagues. After a cup of coffee in 2023, Young made center field at Nationals Park his home in 2024. He was a very productive player, posting 2.6 fWAR, and 2.8 bWAR.
There is no denying his speed and defense, but his offensive upside is limited. Young hit a decent .256, but it came with no power, leading to a rough .648 OPS. Most of his batted ball data ranks in the bottom 10% of MLB hitters, showing a distinct lack of upside. However, he doesn’t need to be a great hitter, or even an average one to be valuable.
All he needs to do is become mediocre, which he will be given the chance to do this season. While Young’s 19.6 K% ranked in the 64th percentile, he still needs to put the ball in play more. For a hitter of Young’s archetype, not striking out is paramount. With Young’s speed, putting the ball in play puts massive pressure on the defense. If he can get his strikeout rate closer to 15% you can see some solid gains.
If Young doesn’t improve offensively, the Nats are forced into difficult conversations. Is Young’s defense worth having an offensive liability in the lineup. We saw in the playoffs this year that bad offensive players stick out like a sore thumb.
There is always the possibility of moving Dylan Crews back to his natural center field position, and making a splash on an elite corner outfield bat. Jace Laviolette, another outfielder is one of the favorites to go first overall. The Nats could stick with Young until he is ready, if that is what they want to do.
Even if Young doesn’t have the bat to be an everyday player, he remains a valuable asset. He would be an elite fourth outfielder, with his speed an defense. Young would be a fantastic late inning defensive replacement in close games.
Young could also be a trade candidate down the road. Teams would covet his speed and defense. Myles Straw, who was a similar player to Young fetched the Astros Yainer Diaz, their catcher of the future.
The Nationals seem happy to give Young the starting spot this season, but how he plays will tell us a lot. Young is a valuable player, the question is how valuable and what role is the best for him. Regardless of how it goes, Jacob Young was a diamond in the rough, who went from a 7th round pick to a valuable MLB player.