Things have been really rough for the Royals since the end of May. They haven’t won a home game in the month of June yet, and they haven’t gotten on a nice winning streak in a while.
After dropping the series opener to the Rays last night 5-1, the Royals have 18 games left before the All-Star Break. 2 vs Tampa Bay, 3 vs the Dodgers, 4 at Seattle, 3 at Arizona, 3 vs the Pirates and 3 vs the Mets.
It’s reasonable to think that the Royals can go 12-6 over that stretch and be 3 games over .500 at the break. The most reasonable and likely path is this: take the last two from the Rays, take at least one hopefully two from the Dodgers, split the 4 games in Seattle, take 2 of 3 in Arizona, sweep the Pirates and take one or two from the Mets.
While I know fan confidence in the team is low right now, there is logical reasoning to why the Royals could win 12 of their next 18.
The Rays are the hottest team in baseball right now, but a couple of bad defensive plays opened the game up last night, if the Royals make those plays, it’s 2-0 in the bottom of the 6th when Bobby Witt Jr. comes to the plate. He probably would’ve been pitched differently, despite his lineout to left, the result could’ve been more positive for the Royals if it was just a 2-0 game.
These next two games are huge for the Royals as they need the offense to come alive and build some momentum heading into this weekend. And with the way Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen have pitched their last couple of outings, I think they can hold down a red-hot Rays lineup.
The Dodgers series is a little trickier for the Royals, as the defending champs are, again, the cream of the crop in the league. However, with how banged up their pitching staff is, the Royals should hopefully be able to exploit that. The Royals will roll out Lugo, Cameron and Bubic to start for them in that series as well, so you have to give the Royals the pitching edge. Taking 2 of 3 isn’t necessarily as out of reach as you may think.
Then the Royals hit the road, first for four in Seattle, I think a split is reasonable, Cal Raleigh is having a historical season, but I think the Royals match up well with the Mariners, splitting a 4-game series isn’t that big of an ask.
Then, off to the desert, and 2 of 3 should be easier for the Royals as well. Corbin Carroll and Corbin Burnes are out. Justin Martinez, one of the better Diamondbacks relievers is out currently as well. The Diamondbacks are really banged up; the Royals need to take advantage and take the series.
Finally, we come to the final 6 game homestand before the break. The Royals will first get the lowly Pirates, who’s offense is just as bad as the Royals, and they don’t nearly have the pitching. (Outside of Skenes obviously). This is a prime sweeping spot for the Royals, similar to the Rockies series in April, they need to sweep one of the worst teams in the NL.
The last series before the break is the Mets at home. While they are one of the best teams in the NL, the Royals just need to avoid getting swept. If the Royals can go 3-3 in the Dodgers and Mets series’s, I think they can be 9-3 in the other 12 games. That would put them at 12-6 over the last 18 games before the break and 50-47 on the season, and right back in the thick of the Wild Card race.
So, while things look bleak right now, I ask for you to stay with the guys and remain positive. I think the Royals can take advantage of their upcoming schedule and firmly crawl back in the playoff race.
The Royals are too talented to not get hot again. The offense hasn’t had a sustained team wide hot streak yet either. I think they are going to break out over the next 18 games.