It might be hard to believe, but Artemi Panarin‘s seven-year contract will soon expire.
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Not too long ago, you can remember the New York Rangers introducing the star forward and him holding up his new Blueshirt sweater in front of Madison Square Garden with the No. 10, a move that just about signaled the end of a rebuild.
#NYR @9Artemi @TheGarden! pic.twitter.com/lEXa093r91
— New York Rangers (@NYRangers) July 2, 2019
Now, several years later, Panarin is set to hit the open market again in 12 months. While it might seem like a no-brainer for the Rangers to do everything they can to re-sign their leading scorer in every season since he arrived in New York, maybe they shouldn’t be so desperate.
Loaded Upcoming Free Agent Class
And there’s one big reason not to. The 2026 free agency class has the chance to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest, in NHL history. That’s because one potential name might hit the market – generational talent Connor McDavid. The biggest name to ever reach free agency was probably Wayne Gretzky in 1996. Over the past couple of decades, some notable names that have hit the open market include Zdeno Chara in 2006, John Tavares in 2018 and Panarin in 2019.
But nothing would compare to the magnitude of McDavid – not even Gretzky, who was 35 years old when he chose to sign with the Rangers as a free agent. McDavid, if he chooses not to re-sign with the Edmonton Oilers, will only be 29 years old. The franchise center, who has posted at least 100 points in eight out of his past nine seasons, would likely provide his next team with generational play down the middle for a number of years, should he choose to reach free agency.
That name alone should force the Rangers to wait on a Panarin extension and save as much cap space as possible. But other intriguing names are scheduled to reach free agency in 2026, assuming they don’t re-sign with their current hockey clubs: Jack Eichel, Kirill Kaprizov, Alex Ovechkin and Cale Makar.
Of course, it’s important to note that it’s unlikely that all of those options will hit the open market and will opt to re-sign with their teams instead. But if a couple of these options remain a possibility (especially Eichel or McDavid), the Rangers shouldn’t rush signing Panarin to an extension.
Rangers Should Still Talk About Potential Discount
As of now, the Blueshirts are scheduled to have more than $29 million to play with next July, according to PuckPedia. That number alone is more than enough to fit McDavid or someone else under the cap, even if he opts for the max contract, which would be 20 percent of the projected $104 million. Under that scenario, the most the average annual value can come in at is $20.8 million.
Of course, McDavid, who already got a big $100 million payday with the Oilers, could very well opt to take a little less and give his next team more cap flexibility.
But in the meantime, the Rangers wouldn’t be wise to cut all lines of communication from Panarin, even if McDavid or Eichel remain on the board. In fact, president and general manager Chris Drury should see if there’s any appetite from the Breadman to take a hometown discount. After all, losing him would leave a big void on the wing and be a near-impossible piece to replace. So, what would a contract look like? In a recent article, Larry Brooks of the New York Post reported that the “sweet spot” for the 33-year-old is likely at an AAV that sits between $10 million and $12 million on a three or a four-year extension (from “Nothing good comes from Rangers letting Artemi Panarin’s fate linger,” the New York Post, 7/13/25). That doesn’t seem irrational, especially when considering 28-year-old Mitch Marner signed for $12 million AAV on an eight-year deal with the Vegas Golden Knights recently.
That AAV range would push the Rangers harder up against the salary cap and could take them out of the running for McDavid, or even Eichel. Plus, keep in mind that newly acquired Scott Morrow and Braden Schneider, scheduled to become restricted free agents at the end of next season, could be due for raises too. That’s why the Rangers should hold off on a contract extension for the time being if Panarin is firm on a $10 million AAV asking price or more.
But if Panarin would sign, say a three-year deal, with the AAV ranging between $7 million and $8 million, by all means the Rangers should do it. With the cap rising the way it’s been, a contract that ranges in total value between $21 million and $24 million would be a bargain for Drury. And for Panarin, he would likely be leaving at least $10 million on the table if he were to reach free agency. We recently saw John Tavares sign a major hometown discount at a $4.39 million AAV to remain a Toronto Maple Leaf. So if Panarin were to do something similar, it wouldn’t be a major surprise.
As things stand, the Rangers have time – and they should use it. The appeal of New York attracted Panarin in 2019, and he might not want to leave the Big Apple and would be willing to sacrifice some money to stay. Plus, the longer McDavid and Eichel remain unsigned, the more that nearly $30 million in cap space next year looks attractive for the Rangers. So Drury should be patient. He doesn’t have to give in to an early asking price, and can re-sign Panarin after next season and before free agency if needed. But the line of communication should remain open this summer, and see if there’s any leeway to keep the AAV as low as possible. If the Rangers are to lose Panarin and the consolation prize is McDavid, then so be it.
