The race for the number one pick in the MLB Draft has already been a wild ride. An established name in Jace Laviolette has had a slow start to the season, while new names have risen to the top of draft boards. No player has had a bigger rise than Tennessee left handed pitcher Liam Doyle.
Doyle started the year as the 75th ranked draft prospect via MLB Pipeline, but is now a near lock to go in the first round after just four starts. While that sounds extreme, it is justified. Like Paul Skenes a couple years ago, Doyle has become a totally new pitcher his Junior year. Similarly, Doyle transferred before his Junior year.
Liam Doyle is a bit of a representation of the changing landscape of college sports. He has been at three schools in three years. Doyle started at Coastal Carolina before transferring to Ole Miss for his Sophomore year. After an up and down season in Oxford, Doyle joined the baseball powerhouse that is the University of Tennessee.
In Knoxville, Doyle’s stuff has exploded. His fastball went from sitting in the 91-94 MPH range to the 94-97 MPH range, touching 98 this season. Doyle’s fastball already played up from its velocity in the past due to his deceptive delivery and the pitches strong characteristics. Now it is an utterly dominant plus-plus offering.
According to Keith Law of the Athletic, Doyle is a fastball-dominant pitcher. However, it works because guys can’t touch the heater. Having a dominant fastball is such a strong base to work from. With all the pitch labs, breaking stuff can be developed, but fastball shape is harder to alter.
Law had Doyle as his number one prospect, something that shocked me, but if you just looked at 2025 performance, it makes sense. Doyle has a nutty 47 strikeouts in 20.1 innings, with a 0.44 ERA. While it is a small sample size, he has put himself on the map in the race for the number 1 pick.
When Paul Skenes came from Air Force to LSU, he was on nobodies radar to be the number one pick. It was seen as a race between Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford at the time. However, Skenes was so good that he put himself in the conversation and eventually became the consensus number one guy.
Tennessee has yet to play SEC opposition, so we are still a long way away from declaring Doyle a 1-1 lock like Skenes, but his performances can’t be ignored. Keith Law putting him at number one really intrigued me because Keith is a maverick who is not scared of what others think about his rankings. He will put who he thinks is the best guy at 1 even if it is against the grain. This often means he is early to the party.
At Federal Baseball we want to be ahead of the curve as well, so we are going to talk about Liam Doyle as a number 1 pick contender. That is where this will be headed if he keeps up anything like this in SEC play. It is a dominant fastball with promising secondary pitches and solid command. That looks like the blue print for an ace to me, and the Washington Nationals need an ace of the future.