The NHL Trade Deadline is right around the corner and while question marks linger for most teams in the race for hockey’s holy grail, the Toronto Maple Leafs have one question mark that won’t be answered at the deadline. That said, it’s a major piece of their roster and one that certainly needs more clarity. Who is the Maple Leafs number one between the pipes heading into the playoffs?
It’s a question that certainly doesn’t have a definitive answer. In fact, while it might be problematic to have to make a decision between two strong candidates in net, it’s a good problem to have. But with roughly 20 games left in the regular season, Steve Valiquette joined the Real Kyper and Bourne show on Tuesday to try and help Leafs Nation settle on who could possibly be the team’s number one.
Now, at first it seems as though Valiquette is steer Justin Bourne and Nick Kypreos in the direction of Anthony Stolarz. But, in fact, he runs through a handful of statistical arguments as to why the Maple Leafs might not actually have a number one goalie — but two strong starters instead.
Stolarz Vs. Woll: The Deeper Factors
Obviously the biggest deciding factor will be whether or not one has completely outplayed the other during the homestretch of the season. That could really solidify the starter’s spot for either Stolarz or Joseph Woll.
Beyond that, however, there are some numbers that could shape the way the Maple Leafs approach this goaltending situation.
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Valiquette raised the question of consistency — which goalie has been more consistent over the season for the Maple Leafs. What he noted is that overall, Stolarz has had more big games for the team this season, but that Woll has been more consistent game in and game out this season in giving the Maple Leafs a chance to win.
He breaks it down further into what he calls the positive game percentage, noting that Woll’s number is at 84.5 percent compared to Stolarz’s 77 percent. Both are good numbers when you consider how they’ve played for the Maple Leafs this season, but it does give Woll the slight edge overall.
In saying that, the team overall has played better in front of Stolarz this season. That, too, has to be considered in the decision-making process.
Stolarz and Woll Under Pressure
As for high-pressured moments, which obviously will include playoffs when the times comes, both have held their own at times throughout the season with the Maple Leafs.
In his appearance on Kyper and Bourne, Valiquette described pressure in two forms under his metric — who has the better save percentage when the score is tied, up by a goal or down by a goal.
When it comes to the Maple Leafs’ tandem, Stolarz is 12 goals better than league average and Woll is four goals better than league average. When the score is tied — a playoff type of game — Woll is a minus-seven and Stolarz is a plus-one.
Both goalies are better when they are up by one or down by one, so knowing that tie games can be tough for this duo is worth noting. In this case, Stolarz has the slight edge.
Maple Leafs’ Goaltending Situation Offers Zero Clarity
Even with the breakdown of pressure situations and overall consistency this season, there’s really no more clarity as to which way the Maple Leafs would go for Game 1 of the playoffs. Based solely on numbers — Stolarz might get the edge. Based solely on experience — Stolarz, again, gets the edge.
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But Woll has been in the organization since he was drafted in 2016 and the team has helped to develop him into an NHL calibre starter. His poise and eagerness to play could push Craig Berube and the Maple Leafs to lean in his direction. But, at the end of the day, there is no clarity at this point in the season.
Both goalies have stepped up when the other one was out with an injury.
Stolarz Gets the Slight Edge Based on Numbers
At 31, Stolarz does have the edge in experience. He has the Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers and given that the Maple Leafs could be facing a familiar foe in round one of the playoffs, it might be beneficial to have Stolarz between the pipes.
This season, Stolarz has a 13-5-3 record in 23 games with a .925 save percentage (SV%) and 2.21 goals against average (GAA), albeit with injuries scattered in there.
Woll is 21-12-0 in 33 games this season for the Maple Leafs. He has a .905 SV% and 2.78 GAA, having played roughly half of the number of games that Stolarz has in his career.
While experience can go a long way — especially in playoffs — Stolarz carries the edge in both experience and numbers and how the team has played in front of him this season. Because of that, it would seem as though he would get the call for Game 1 of the playoffs when that comes around.
That said, there is another option. Even if Stolarz gets the call to kick off the playoffs for the Maple Leafs, Berube could decide to alternate between Woll and Stolarz. It’s something we saw the Boston Bruins do with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman in the past. A two-goalie system might not be the worst — especially when both of them have played well enough to earn playoff starts this season.