This isn’t a premature eulogy for the Maple Leafs. Their death certificate hasn’t been signed and playoff history isn’t light on teams coming back to win games six and seven. On the other hand getting shutout in Game 4 and being blown out 6-1 in Game 5 doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the Leafs, especially since the “Core Four” have been held off the scoresheet in the past couple of games (as one would expect when there is only one goal scored in 120 minutes of play), and recent history doesn’t support a big rally from this group now that Toronto will be playing elimination games.
Looking at the numbers from the 2023 playoffs and onward (honestly, I could have gone back even further but it clutters up the graphs), there is little reason for optimism in big games coming from this group outside of William Nylander.
| Matthews | Marner | Tavares | Nylander | |
| Can Close Out | 5-3-1-4 (1) | 5-0-3-3 (2) | 5-2-2-4 (2) | 5-2-3-5 (3) |
| Could be closed out | 2-0-0-0 (2) | 4-1-2-3 (2) | 4-0-2-2 (2) | 4-4-0-4 (0) |
| Game 7 | 1-0-0-0 (1) | 1-0-0-0 (1) | 1-0-0-0 (1) | 1-1-0-1 (0) |
| Total | 8-3-1-4 (4) | 10-1-5-6 (5) | 10-2-4-6 (5) | 10-7-3-10 (3) |
| Games Played-Goals-Assists-Points (Games Held Pointless) | ||||
While putting up points in every game, even for point per game players is a big ask, the fact that William Nylander is the only player with a better than 50/50 track record in finding the scoresheet and is the only point per game averaging player of this group emphasizes their woes. The fact that Nylander has more goals than the other three players combined is a strong argument for eliminating him from the criticism directed towards this group, so maybe it’s a matter of considering him the control group when looking at these numbers.
Nylander had a four game pointless stretch in 2023, and after his return from injury in 2024 he was held pointless in his first two games back as well. Since that time, this current two game pointless streak is his worst results in what has been a generally strong playoff career.
Auston Matthews’ longest stretch without a point in the playoffs came the last time the Leafs and Panthers met in the playoffs, and he was off the scoresheet for three games. He’s had two two game pointless streaks since then, but perhaps most concerning is that after the 2023 series against Tampa, there is little in the way of goal scoring in the next four series. A generational goal scorer should come away with better than three goals in 21 games even if he is fighting an injury and adjusting his game to play more defensively 5v5. If we were just talking about Matthews having three powerplay goals in the past 21 playoff games that too would seem like a problem.
Marner’s playoff results are in a lot of ways identical to Matthews. There is less of an expectation of Marner as a goal scorer, so his nearly identical production is easier to accept but with just one goal in an elimination game truly underwhelming for a player that is allegedly seeking $14M AAV on his next contract. Game Four against Florida in 2023 had the potential to be a confidence booster and Marner seemed to believe his Four Nations experience this winter would also translate to stronger results, but with just two assists in three deciding games in Ottawa and one assist in three deciding games against Boston last season don’t inspire confidence.
Is it cruel to say that John Tavares showing up on the scoresheet is far from a given? He’s had two four game stretches in the past three years where he’s been held without a point, and four more two game intervals where he was pointless. Maybe the good news is that Tavares has been good for a number of multipoint games over the past three post seasons, but in ten games against Florida, he’s only produced points in two of those games.
So, how do the Leafs attempt to win when three of their top paid players are unreliable and the rest of the lineup is built on a shoestring budget to accommodate that? I’d imagine some crossing of fingers will have to be involved.
The Leafs have a playoff producer in William Nylander and seemingly another one in the making in Matthew Knies. Craig Berube getting them together on the ice late in Game Five produced some chances even if they didn’t find the scoresheet, it’s worth continuing but possibly with Auston Matthews as the centre between them instead of Marner.
For all the criticisms directed towards Marner, after Nylander he has been the next most productive member of the Core Four against the Panthers, perhaps giving him the opportunity to play against a line that doesn’t include Barkov and Reinhart, as well as top pairing defencemen will give him a bit more room to breathe and create for someone other than Matthews, with the expectation that Marner also simplifies his game to recognize that it isn’t Auston Matthews finishing his plays.
It might also be time to try spreading the Core Four across three lines in hope of someone getting a better look. If Craig Berube keeps Nick Robertson in the lineup, it gives Toronto a chance to embrace a bit more of an offensive push.
The next game or possibly next couple of games seem like the last chance for this core to prove they can work together at this time of year. The evidence so far isn’t encouraging even if the talent is.
Data from Hockey Reference