The discussion for most of the season has been that the Nationals lineup does not have much behind CJ Abrams and James Wood. There was some truth to this for a lot of the season. Nathaniel Lowe got into a prolonged slump, Keibert Ruiz has fallen off after a hot start, and Josh Bell has been largely a non-factor.
For a lot of the season you could put Luis Garcia Jr. into that group of underperforming bats. He got off to a very slow start that he had to work his way out of. As recently as May 22nd, Garcia was rocking a .617 OPS.
However, the Nationals second baseman has seen his fortunes turn lately. His average is up to .274 and that OPS is all the way up to .747 and rising almost as quickly as Boeing planes. Even as the Nats have struggled for offense, Garcia has been on a heater in the month of June. For the month he has a .329 average and .856 OPS.
A lot of this is simply positive regression. Garcia had been getting unlucky all season and now he is finally catching some breaks. The advanced metrics suggest Garcia’s numbers can be even better.
Garcia’s xwOBA of .374 is well above his actual wOBA of .323. His expected batting average of .312 is also well below his actual batting average of .274. The fundamentals of Garcia’s hitting game are stronger than ever. His average exit velocity is up over 1 MPH, his hard hit rate is up 6% and his barrel rate is up 2.5%.
These are all signs of a hitter coming into his own and finding a new level. At 25, Garcia could just be entering his prime offensively. He has always been able to put the bat on the ball, but now he is hitting it harder than ever.
While the offense is better than ever, Garcia’s defense has fallen apart this year. Last year Garcia Jr. was a positive on defense. He recorded 5 outs above average at second base and looked highly capable over there. That was after a few years of defensive struggles.
Well the defensive struggles are back for Garcia. He already has an awful -8 outs above average. When watching him, you can see the lack of range hurt him on a frequent basis. It has been a problem this year. Hopefully he can find a way to get back to something close to the level he was last year.
If he can’t, that makes for an interesting conversation. If the Nats decide that Garcia can’t survive at second, his bat has become good enough to be a 1B/DH type. His OPS is at .750 and all of the underlying data suggests it should be much higher than that. While he does not have the power profile of a 1B/DH, his bat can play anywhere.
If that happens, the Nats could try to find a new shortstop and push Abrams over to second base. This is all hypothetical right now, but the middle infield defense has been a problem for the Nats and this could be a potential solution.
At the moment, Luis Garcia Jr. is outhitting his defensive frailties and has become one of the most important pieces in the Nats lineup. Alongside a recently hot Nathaniel Lowe, Garcia is giving this Nats lineup much more depth. He is also providing James Wood with the protection he desperately needs.
He can be a frustrating player to watch at times, but Luis Garcia Jr. can really hit. The Nats second baseman has been red hot and the numbers tell us he shouldn’t be slowing down anytime soon.