Looking at things through the simple lens of replacing points, Mitch Marner had 102 points last season, combine Marner’s points with 33 points combined from Pontus Holmberg, Max Pacioretty, and Ryan Reaves, and the Maple Leafs are looking to replace 135 points total. The acquisitions of Nicolas Roy and Mattias Maccelli have brought back 49 (although there is good reason to believe that Maccelli is capable of more than the 18 he put up last season) leaving the Toronto Maple Leafs still looking for an 86-point player (again if we want to assume that Maccelli is at least capable of 30 in the Leafs’ top nine forward group, that number drops to 74.) Point wise, the Leafs are still showing they have a way to go in being on par with where they were in 2024-25 and this should probably keep Brad Treliving up at night.
Points might be the easiest part of talking about Marner’s departure. The biggest barrier might be with replacing the minutes and the quality of minutes that Marner put up. When looking at share of ice time (via Moneypuck), Marner was fifth in the league amongst forwards, only behind Nathan MacKinnon, Kirill Kaprizov, Leon Draisaitl, and Connor McDavid. And when you look at Marner’s time on ice he was third on the Leafs in powerplay time, third on the Leafs in penalty kill time (first amongst forwards), and was first in overtime time on ice. And those are minutes being played by an elite two-way player that has skills not captured in his 102 points. (Yes, there is the playoff side of Marner, and the Leafs aren’t wrong to head in a new direction, but ignoring what Marner does bring to the table and embracing change for the sake of change isn’t going to get the Leafs any closer to a Stanley Cup.)
More than any other Leafs forward (according to PuckIQ), Marner faced elite (top line) competition, being on the ice against them 49% of the time, and only 18.6% of the time did he face bottom six competition. Marner, during those 5v5 minutes had positive goal and expected goal differentials, and nearly even shot and shot attempt differentials. Those minutes are not adequately replaced by Maccelli or Roy, both of whom at best had balanced usage and diminishing roles on their clubs last season.
This is not a sky is falling situation and somewhat of a step back is to be expected when moving on from Mitch Marner, the Leafs are unlikely to find those 75 points and this late into the offseason there isn’t a 22 minute a night forward that is going to magically appear on the trade market (unless things go wrong real quick in the Oilers attempt to re-sign Connor McDavid.) It has always been about balancing out the attack and Toronto is in the early steps of doing that. So much of this is also about exploring a playoff performer narrative and gaining buy-in for presumed type of hockey that works better in the playoffs.
While understanding and agreeing with the direction the Leafs are going in is reasonable, so is looking at the lineup and acknowledging that this team looks a lot worse on paper at the moment and given that most teams aren’t budging on the talent they have on their roster given that there isn’t much in the way of replacement options available, Brad Treliving’s job isn’t an easy one.
There are still reasonable adjustments that can be made via free agency. Joel Kiviranta brings in a bit more offence while being a capable defensive and physical presence against non-elite competition. Jack Roslovic further helps address the offensive shortcomings and has played top six minutes although his best production has come when he has slid down the lineup, and Luke Kunin is someone that would show a more full-hearted commitment to toughness over finesse and acknowledges that players like Jarnkrok, Kampf, Domi, and Robertson aren’t a fit with Toronto’s vision for the bottom six. If the intention is that bottom six becomes more purposeful and tougher to play against, it is likely that Craig Berube will trust them in more situations and help elevate some of the reliance on Marner’s defensive play. That’s not to say it’s the right course of action, but if the Leafs are going to commit to tougher hockey, they need players who will play it not just throw a crosscheck in scrums after the whistle.
The other option is the one that the Leafs seem to be exploring the most and that is attempting to alleviate the pressure on the forwards by upgrading the blueline. Both Dougie Hamilton and Erik Karlsson have been rumoured targets of the Maple Leafs, and while they wouldn’t cut into Marner’s 5v5 time, they address some of his 5v5 playmaking and takeaway abilities, as well as could step into Marner’s powerplay quarterback role on Toronto’s top unit, helping with some of the minutes asked of Toronto’s top forwards.
Looking at defensive upgrades is another commitment to a different direction for the Maple Leafs and as much as the Leafs lineup can look truly different rather than the Leafs with a Marner understudy, that would be ideal. What would also be ideal is if it felt like there was a purposeful design in place and not just a scramble to work with whatever player is available. The Shanaplan might have failed but there was a purposeful design, and purposeful designs, even more than tax breaks, are what have built winning teams in Vegas, Florida, and Tampa.
Maccelli and Roy are likely upgrades over what the Leafs had previously with Holmberg, Pacioretty, and Reaves, and based on their 2024-25 TOI, they combine for around six more minutes a night of ice time, which when you look at the departure of Marner, meaning that the drop off from Marner’s departure is accounting for a good chunk time was once filled by an elite forward is now going to go to Easton Cowan (a promising rookie), David Kampf or Calle Jarnkrok (depth forwards), or Nick Robertson (a one dimensional scorer). The talent gap is pretty substantial even if the Leafs are happy to be moving in a new direction but the question remains if they intend to get better or just be different.
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