How much time should we expect Jac Caglianone to spend in the minors?

The Royals offense went into a tailspin last September that has carried over into this year. They are averaging on 3.06 runs-per-game – only the Rockies have scored fewer runs this year. Royals hitters are collectively hitting .208/.276/.312 – only the Pirates and White Sox have a worse OPS.

The glaring hole has been in the outfield, which was weak last year, and went largely unaddressed in the off-season. Royals outfielders are hitting just .184/.255/.263 this year, the second-worst OPS in baseball.

But there is hope. Down on the farm, the muscle-bound Jac Caglianone has gone viral with tape-measure home runs and jaw-dropping exit velocities.

Caglianone has held his own playing for the Double-A Northwest Arkansas Naturals, hitting .268/.347/.537 with three home runs and six walks in 10 games with a 22.4 percent strikeout rate. Just a year ago, Caglianone was playing college ball at Florida, but now he has Royals fans counting the days until he is in the big leagues. How many days will that be?

I went back and look at college hitters taken in the first six picks in the draft between 2014 and 2023. Obviously the lost 2020 minor league season threw a wrench in the development of some players. Injuries were also a factor for players like Nick Senzel, Heston Kjerstad, and Austin Martin.

Regardless, the average hitter from this stretch was in the big leagues after around 164 games in the minors. Some were demoted after that, but it only took about a full season of play before they made their MLB debut.

Top ten college hitter draft picks 2014-2023

Name Team Draft Year Pick College Days until MLB Debut Minor league games
Name Team Draft Year Pick College Days until MLB Debut Minor league games
Kyle Schwarber CHC 2014 4 Indiana 376 129
Dansby Swanson ARI 2015 1 Vanderbilt 436 127
Alex Bregman HOU 2015 2 LSU 413 146
Nick Senzel CIN 2016 2 Tennessee 1,058 239
Corey Ray MIL 2016 5 Louisville 1,461 376
Joey Bart SFG 2018 2 Georgia Tech 808 130
Alec Bohm PHI 2018 3 Wichita State 801 165
Nick Madrigal CHW 2018 4 Oregon State 788 163
Jonathan India CIN 2018 5 Florida 1,061 165
Adley Rutschman BAL 2019 1 Oregon State 1,457 180
Andrew Vaughn CHW 2019 3 California 1,073 55
JJ Bleday MIA 2019 4 Vanderbilt 1,146 233
Spencer Torkelson DET 2020 1 Arizona State 1,033 121
Heston Kjerstad BAL 2020 2 Arkansas 1,191 187
Austin Martin MIN 2020 5 Vanderbilt 1,795 185
Henry Davis PIT 2021 1 Louisville 1,092 118
Colton Cowser BAL 2021 5 Sam Houston State 1,088 227
Dylan Crews WSN 2023 2 LSU 414 135
Wyatt Langford TEX 2023 4 Florida 233 44
Average 932.8 164.5

The quickest promotion was Wyatt Langford with the Rangers, who made the Opening Day roster last year after just 44 minor league games and enjoyed a 3.9 rWAR season with 16 homers and 19 steals his rookie year.

Kyle Schwarber also provides a pretty good comp for Caglianone. Both were left-handed hitters with prodigious power. After playing for Indiana, Schwarber hit .344/.428/.634 with 18 HR in 72 games in A-ball. The next year he spent 58 games at Double-A where he hit .320/.438/.579 with 13 home runs in 58 games. He was promoted to Triple-A, and after three weeks there he was in the big leagues, helping the Cubs in their post-season stretch

What will we be looking for to know if Caglianone is ready? We already knew he had 80-grade power, so the tape measure home runs are not really a surprise. What is at question is whether Caglianone will make enough contact on pitches, particularly as pitchers work around him more. Keith Law at The Athletic had questions about Caglianone had concerns about his chase rate as an amateur. But in a recent scouting report, he came away impressed at his improvements.

Caglianone pulled his hands in and absolutely unloaded on the ball, with unbelievable power; most hitters would either swing around and hook the ball, or keep their hands inside but only be able to push it the other way. Caglianone took good at-bats the whole game, including an eight-pitch walk where he spoiled a couple of pitches and then took a pitch fairly close to the zone for ball four — a good sign, even if it’s just one plate appearance, because his tendency to chase stuff out of the zone was by far his biggest flaw as a hitter in college.

So far his strikeout rate is below league-average, so he doesn’t appear to be getting fooled that much.

My best guess it that Caglianone is at Northwest Arkansas through July. If he is raking at that point, he may spend a perfunctory few weeks in Triple-A Omaha, and if that isn’t overwhelming, that will be enough time for him to join the Royals before the season ends. Hopefully the offense can manage enough that the Royals are still in contention at that point, and he can provide a jolt to the lineup.

But Royals fans are finding it hard to wait.

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