We are a day away from the Nationals big decision of who they will select first overall in the 2025 MLB Draft. Although there is no clear option and reports are that the Nats are considering a whole group of players, the 2 front runners seem to be LSU left handed pitcher Kade Anderson and Stillwater High School third baseman Ethan Holliday, with the former being the more popular choice in recent mock drafts.
Anderson had a magnificent sophomore season at LSU, posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 119 innings pitched, along with leading the nation in strikeouts with 180. He also showed up big time in the biggest game of his life, throwing a complete game shutout in game one of the College World Series vs Coastal Carolina, a series the Tigers would win and Anderson was named MVP.
Everyone knows of Anderson’s brilliant year at LSU and his playoff heroics, but some may not know the adversity he fought to get there. Kade did not play his first year at LSU due to undergoing Tommy John Surgery in April 2022, during his senior year of high school. He would return to the mound during the 2024 season, where he made 18 appearances and 9 starts for the Tigers to the tune of a 3.99 ERA.
Just how big a deal is it that the 20 year old Kade Anderson has already gone under the knife once? Well, plenty of players have returned from Tommy John surgery and looked as good as before, sometimes better, so that’s not of much concern. What fans should be worried about is if Anderson at some point in his career needs to undergo the surgery again, as the success rate of pitchers after a second Tommy John surgery is murky.
There are some success stories, such as Jacob deGrom currently pitching at an elite level again, or Nathan Eovaldi who’s had the best years of his career afterwards, but there is also plenty of examples of it wrecking pitchers careers, such as two-time all star Josh Johnson who never threw another MLB pitch after his second, or even current Rays starter Shane McClanahan, who got the surgery in August of 2023 and hasn’t pitched a big league inning since.
Since his return from surgery, Anderson has had a clean bill of health, leaving a start in May against Arkansas with the trainers, but it turned out to be only a cramp after he had thrown over 100 pitches. This doesn’t mean he won’t have some kind of issue down the line however, as the arm can be a fickle mistress that will act up at any time. Whatever organization drafts him should certainly avoid using him like Jay Johnson at LSU did, taking him well over 100 pitches every start.
No one has a crystal ball and can tell you how Kade Anderson’s career is going to go and if he will have arm issues again, but what I can tell you is there is added risk to drafting someone with 1 surgery already under their belt like Anderson, as another has a chance to ruin their career. Let’s just hope Anderson, whether drafted by the Nationals or not, has no issues and we never find out, as he has the talent to have a long and successful big league career.