Auston Matthews’ shot creation and gravity effect are on full display through October

Auston Matthews’ shot creation and gravity effect are on full display through October

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Through the opening stages of the season, Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews has answered the $13.25-million question: will Matthews return to the elite goal-scoring form that he’s displayed throughout his career, after an upper-body injury held him to 33 goals in 67 games last year?

Matthews is being rewarded for his elite shot creation through five games. Prior to Saturday’s slate, Matthews ranked tied for fourth with 16 shots at 5-on-5 and 22 in all situations via Natural Stat Trick. He ranks first in the NHL with 3.86 individual expected goals generated in all situations, and fourth at 5-on-5 with 1.93 individual expected goals.

So what does this mean in practical terms? Matthews is being rewarded for his elite ability to push to high-danger areas, getting to the net-front with ease, and we could see an incoming goal barrage this year. The 28-year-old has recorded four goals and five points through the first five games, with two empty-netters, as he pushes towards a 50-goal plus pace.

“He’s been pretty solid,” Berube said of Matthews following Friday’s practice at the Ford Performance Centre. “Again, we’re all going to look at the goalscoring, I look at the whole game. But you know, he is scoring. He’s healthy, feels good, he’s been a good player in all aspects of the game for me.”

Matthews is driving Toronto’s first line, with Matthew Knies on the left wing, and rookie Easton Cowan on the right. Knies and Cowan are the Maple Leafs’ two most important under-25 pieces, and they’re the clear pillars of the future, while Matthews is firmly in his prime, trying to lead the team to an elusive Stanley Cup victory. In the short-term, Matthews is making strong reads for his teammates, and the threat of his shot opens up space for his teammates — the gravity effect, if you will.

“I think it creates a lot,” Cowan said. “Obviously, he’s got a lethal shot. I just try to get open and do my thing, give him the puck so he can score.”

Knies-Matthews-Cowan have dominated their minutes through three games. In a small sample: Knies-Matthews-Cowan are outshooting opponents 21-7, with a 74.75 percent share of the expected goals. That’s really damn good, and it’s a testament to Knies’ forechecking abilities as a power forward, Cowan’s ability to extend possessions within the offensive zone with smart puck touches, and Matthews’ all-around ability to take over games, with the threat of his shoot always looming on the defender’s mind.

And here’s an easy example of Matthews shooting with the intention of creating chances for his linemates. During Monday’s loss to the Detroit Red Wings, Matthews works in tandem to seal off Red Wings winger Emmitt Finnie, and he strips him of the puck. Matthews then surveys the ice and fires the puck off Cam Talbot’s pad, with the idea of creating a rebound for either Knies, or Oliver Ekman-Larsson to seize. Ekman-Larsson fires a dangerous second shot attempt on goal, but nothing comes of it. The process is still correct.

There’s another smaller example from Toronto’s 7-4 win against the Nashville Predators, where Matthews spins and shoots, creating a huge rebound opportunity for Jake McCabe. Toronto’s defencemen are making a more concerted effort to enter the rush as well, and there’s a genuine five-man approach to generate goals this year.

There’s been a notable effort from the Maple Leafs’ wings to attempt short-area passes off the rush over to Matthews, who enters the offensive zone with some pace. Cowan slipped a five-foot pass to Matthews during Thursday’s win against the New York Rangers, during a delayed penalty. It allows Matthews to receive the puck with some momentum as he surveys the ice before getting into his patented curl-and-drag release.

Bobby McMann has occasionally operated as Matthews’ left wing from the 2023-24 season onwards, playing 121:25 at 5-on-5 cumulatively over the past two years. McMann’s elite speed is always an asset when paired with Matthews, and he spoke about how the omnipresent threat of his shot.

“It’s cool, because it comes from him working on it,” McMann told The Leafs Nation on Friday, about Matthews’ ability to generate shots at an elite level. “You see that he’s poured a lot of hours into doing that. A lot of reps and changing angles and that’s why he’s able to do it. He’s able to change the angle so well, shoot from an extended stick to right into where his feet are. If you can do that, you can shoot around defenders and get lots of opportunities.”

Matthews can get his shot from anywhere, which has made him an elite player throughout his career. Last season, Matthews struggled with this aspect of the game. His long-range shooting and short-range accuracy were both affected by this injury and he wasn’t ripping pucks with the same velocity that we’ve been accustomed to. And while there’s a tendency to rush to declarations about whether he’s back to Hart Trophy form, Matthews is shooting with better velocity than he had last season. All the masses need to see now is a puck ping off the bar and in, perhaps.

“He’s always a threat on the ice,” McMann said of Matthews. “He always has awareness, and the attention of the other team, and that opens up guys around him. It creates spaces outside of that. You see it on the power play, it’s the most obvious time you see it: guys shading towards him, they don’t want to give him that one-timer because they know he can pick a spot once he gets it in his wheelhouse. I think it’s always opening up space for other guys.”

Prior to Saturday’s game against the Seattle Kraken, Toronto has registered just one power play goal. And yet, on Matthew Knies’ goal against the Rangers, you can see Matthews’ gravity effect taking place. William Nylander is the primary reason why Knies scored, to be abundantly clear, after surveying the ice and delivering a sharp shot-pass to the back post. Before the puck gets back to Oliver Ekman-Larsson at the point, Matthews rotates to the faceoff circle, then slides back down to the slot, occupying the attention of two Rangers defenders, who should be paying attention to Knies at the back post. All eyes on Toronto’s No. 34 opens up lanes for everyone else.

 

Matthews is also being rewarded for his ability off the rush, and he’s skating with more force and intentionality than last season. Toronto’s top line excelled in transition in Tuesday’s win. In this example, Cowan wins the puck back and immediately finds Matthews cutting up the ice for a 2-on-1 with Knies. Matthews fakes out Predators defenceman Justin Barron with a great fake, slipping the puck over to Knies, who returns it to Matthews for a tap-in.

“He’s getting looks,” Maple Leafs forward Steven Lorentz said of Matthews on Friday. “He’s got a few goals, and I think he could have some more. I think it’s only a matter of time for some of them to go in, even more. He’s going to the net hard. He’s been playing with a few different guys. He’s been playing with Cowboy a little bit, I know that’s not easy for him. He’s going to find his areas of the ice and get the puck in those dangerous spots. He’s dangerous in a lot more areas than most guys.”

And of course, Matthews’ overtime winner over the Rangers is one of the highlights of the young season. At the end of a lengthy shift, Matthews is sprung on a 2-on-1 with Nylander and you can hear the energy from the Scotiabank Arena rise as he races down the ice. Nylander waltzed around the Rangers’ defence before finding Matthews standing at the back post for a game-winning tap-in. You create your own luck in the NHL, and Matthews is being richly rewarded for the quality of shot and opportunism in the early stages of the year.

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