While the final 44 games of the regular season don’t matter in terms of a pennant race for the Washington Nationals in 2025, they do matter in terms of being auditions for players for spots on the 2026 squad. Perhaps the most intriguing roster battle for the Nats going into 2026 will be the rotation, as there are 5 spots to be filled, and few players on the roster who seem worthy of filling them. While free agent signings will happen and shake up the landscape of this debate, here’s a look at who I believe has secured a spot in the rotation next season, who has removed themself from the rotation discussion, and who has more to prove in their final 8-9 starts of 2025 to earn a spot.
Barring a free agency signing of one of the marquee arms on the market, or a trade that sends him elsewhere for a prospect haul, MacKenzie Gore will be the Nationals’ opening day starter in 2026. While his second half of the season has been rockier than the first, he flashed his ace upside again in his last start against the Giants, where he went 6 scoreless and struck out 10. I believe with a new coaching staff in place next season, there are adjustments that can be made to Gore’s mechanics and pitch arsenal that will allow him to pitch like he does early in the year all the way through a season.
When the Nats have asked Lord to jump this season, all he’s responded with is “how high”? In 39 appearances, 10 starts and 29 in relief, Lord has posted a 3.28 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 1.2 fWAR, all not only near the best among Nats arms, but among all rookie pitchers in baseball. Lord doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he does us maximize his potential by doing all the things you have to do when you don’t strike everyone out; throw strikes, keep the ball on the ground, and limit hard contact. Lord being the 2nd pitcher on this list doesn’t mean he should be the Nats’ 2nd best starter heading into 2026, but I do believe he’s earned a spot in the backend of the rotation, barring a major collapse to end the year.
It’s easy to forget about some guys for a while when they get Tommy John Surgery, as they’re out for quite a long time, but I implore people to remember just how good DJ Herz looked in 2024. At 23 years old in 19 starts and 88 2/3 innings, Herz posted a 3.71 FIP, struck out 10.76 batters per 9 innings (10th best among starters with a minimum of 80 innings pitched), and put up 1.7 fWAR. He’d also flash sheer brilliance at points, such as his 1 hit, 13-strikeout performance against the Marlins in his 3rd career big league start.
The underlying numbers were perhaps just as impressive as the results, as he ranked among the best in the game in generating whiffs, avoiding hard contact, and expected batting average. Herz’s season ended in April when he underwent Tommy John Surgery, but he is recovering well and is expected to make his return at some point during the 2026 season, at which point I believe he will bump out the worst-performing Nationals starter.
Ogasawara has been alright out of the bullpen for the Nats, posting a 3.68 ERA in 7 1/3 innings so far, but the 2026 Washington Nationals should not be taken seriously if he is in the rotation for them on opening day. He doesn’t have great stuff, doesn’t limit walks, and gives up plenty of hard contact, not exactly a recipe for big league success. I’m not sure I’d even like for him to be in the bullpen in 2026, but he has the rest of the season to prove me wrong and that he can succeed in short stints.
It seems unlikely that Williams will pitch in 2026 anyway due to elbow issues, but even if he does, it can’t be in the Nationals’ starting rotation. When he was healthy in 2025, he was practically throwing batting practice in most games. Perhaps the most frustrating part was that, unlike a pitcher like Patrick Corbin, who would surrender lots of runs for the Nats but still pitch somewhat deep into games, giving an often taxed bullpen some rest, Williams was giving the Nats zero length, not qualifying for the ERA leaderboards at most points of the year, despite not missing any starts, because he wasn’t going deep enough into games to qualify. I wish Williams all the best in his recovery, and maybe he could make a nice long reliever for the Nats in the back half of 2026, but he shouldn’t ever start for the Nats outside of a bullpen game.
As the president of the Cade Cavalli fan club, I am very excited by what I’ve seen out of him in his first 2 starts since returning to the big leagues. While the results were less impressive last time out, surrendering 4 runs across 5 innings against the Royals, he did the two things that I want to see him do every start, which was hold his velocity and limit hard contact. There are adjustments to be made, such as cutting down on pitches nowhere near the zone and perhaps throwing fewer fastballs, which are fast but a pretty straight pitch, but I am confident in his ability to make the necessary changes to be a very efficient pitcher for the Nationals in 2025 and beyond.
Of the pitchers in this category, I am most confident in him earning a rotation spot, but he’s going to have to prove he can stay healthy and pitch deep enough into outings to avoid a move to the bullpen, where he’d also be a valuable weapon for the Nats.
Another Tommy John victim, it’s been so long since Gray has pitched for the Nationals (April 4th, 2024 being his last appearance) that it seems like most of the fanbase has almost forgotten he’s still around and is a contender for a rotation spot in 2026. Gray has been throwing bullpens at the Nats’ spring training complex in Florida recently, but there are no plans for him to face live hitters soon, leaving it up in the air if he’ll pitch at all for the Nats in 2025. If he doesn’t, he’ll enter 2026 not having appeared in the bigs in 2 years, a similar boat that Cavalli found himself in, except Cavalli has always had sharper stuff than Gray and is getting his feet wet right now in preparation for next season.
The best course of action, to me, would be to start Gray in Triple A in 2026 and let him readjust to a 5-day pitching schedule and however his pitch arsenal has been altered by the surgery, but maybe he proves himself in spring training and earns a spot in the backend of the Nationals rotation to start the year.
It’s really unfortunate, as Irvin has been a pretty consistent player for the Nats during some of the franchise’s toughest years, but as it currently stands, Irvin has not shown enough to be a lock for the spot in the Nationals rotation in 2025. In 136 innings across 24 starts, he’s posted a 4.90 ERA, 5.29 FIP, and just 0.1 fWAR. He ranks near the bottom in baseball in fastball velocity, whiffs and chase generated, and hard contact allowed. He’s not exactly improving as the year goes on either, posting an ERA above 6 since June.
Irvin doesn’t feel like as big a disaster as some other Nats starters, since he does have the ability to go out there and throw one of the best pitched games you’ve ever seen, but it’s often followed up by a 5+ run shelling in his next start. Many fans hoped there was another leap to be made by Irvin after his 2024 saw some solid improvements, but 2025 has been a complete step backwards for him and has put his future in the Nats rotation in jeopardy, in my opinion.
Like Irvin, Parker is a young starter that I thought had the potential to make a leap entering 2025, but instead, it’s been a nightmare for him, posting a 5.43 ERA in 23 starts. Things have only gotten worse as the year has gone on as well, with his ERA over 6 since June, over 7 since July, and currently sitting at 12 in 2 starts in August. Parker’s stuff has never been very impressive, but he made the most of it in 2024 by limiting walks and getting lots of chase, especially with his loopy curveball. Hitters have not been fooled at all in 2025, however, as no qualified pitcher in baseball surrenders more hard contact than Parker, as he ranks in the bottom 1st percentile in both hard hit rate and average exit velocity.
Parker, like Irvin, will have the occasional 6-inning scoreless start that makes you wonder if he’s found something, but it is usually followed by a bonboarding of hard contact and runs the next start. Unless there are significant improvements made in his final 8-9 starts of 2025 that change the outlook of his season, there is simply no way the Nationals can have Parker in their opening day rotation heading into 2026.
My Ideal 2026 Nationals Rotation
DJ Herz (Midseason return, one of Gray/Irvin/Parker until he returns)
In a perfect, ideal world, (which we don’t live in but let me dream) this is what the Nationals rotation would look like in 2026, with 2 aces at the top in Gore and Cease (I like Ranger Suarez and Framber Valdez a lot too), 2 high upside young arms in Herz and Cavalli, and a perfect reliable 5 starter in Lord. The next 2 months can be considered an audition for Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker for that 5th rotation spot until DJ Herz returns, with Gray also having the chance to throw his hat in the ring either at the very end of this season or in spring training next season.
Will the Lerners be willing to shell out big-time money for a pitcher of Cease’s quality this winter? Most likely, no, but again, we’re here to have fun, aren’t we, and in a fantasy land where a strong winter and new coaching staff turn this club around next season, MacKenzie Gore and Dylan Cease are a dangerous duo to have to face in a best-of-three Wild Card series.