When the Washington Nationals acquired Nathaniel Lowe, hopes were high. He was not the flashiest name on the first base market, but he had been the peak of consistency in his 4 year run in Texas. However, he has fallen off a cliff in DC in a marriage that has worked for neither party.
Heading into the season, we thought we knew exactly what to expect from Lowe. That is because he has been one of the most consistent players in baseball since 2021. From 2021 to 2024, Lowe put up at least a 114 wRC+ every year and at least 2 wins above replacement. This year his WAR sits at -0.9 and his wRC+ is 84, with 100 being league average.
Lately, you can tell that Lowe is very discouraged and in his head. He is 0/19 in August so far and is 5/50 in his last 15 games. His OPS for the season is down to .657 and his batting average sits at a dismal .216. Lowe has struggled with high fastballs and off speed pitches that tunnel off of that all year.
Those rough at bats are also translating to his play in the field. Lowe made an error last night and his defense at first base has been very shaky in general of late. This is a surprise, as Lowe developed a reputation as one of the better defensive first baseman in all of baseball his last couple years in Texas. After being a subpar defender early in his career, Lowe worked to become a gold glover at first base.
This year he has still done a solid job at picking balls in the dirt, but his lack of athleticism really shows up when he has to move. There are a lot of balls he can’t get to that more athletic players could.
I do not think Lowe is as bad of a player he has shown to be this season. His long track record suggests that there should be a bounceback of some kind here. Lowe just turned 30 last month, so this decline does not seem like it is down to age.
However, that hopeful bounceback should not come on the Nationals. Lowe is making $10.3 million this year and given how the arbitration system works, he will make more next year if he is tendered a contract. At that price point, he is an easy non-tender. Even a free spending ownership group would not be willing to shell out $12 million on a player coming off the kind of season Lowe has.
With that in mind, it feels like the Nats should just pull the plug now. While it is hard for me to question a player’s effort from my spot, it does look like Lowe is really discouraged right now. I can’t really blame him either. If I were in his shoes, I would want this season to be over as quickly as possible. He is playing on probably the least competitive team in his career, he is playing the worst baseball of his career and he is costing himself money with every ugly at bat. Wouldn’t you want this season to end if you were him?
It seems like a DFA is best for all parties. Maybe Lowe can find a new home for the rest of the season and find some old magic. For the Nats, it is a chance to give some young guys a shot at the first base or DH position.
Nathaniel Lowe seems like a good guy and was a very good ballplayer in Texas. For whatever reason, his time in DC has not worked out for anyone. It is time to admit your mistake and move on from what has become a sunk cost.