The Atlanta Braves are taking on the Milwaukee Brewers in the finale of a series that has clearly not gone in the Braves’ favor.
Spencer Strider coming back from injury has been one of the bright spots in a season that has easily been one of the most frustrating in recent memory. Strider has yet to get back to his former self but has shown some signs of brilliance.
In his first five starts after coming back, he was clearly rusty. He had a 5.40 ERA and 5.59 FIP while walking eleven hitters to only twenty-four strikeouts. If we do the math, that is only 4.8 strikeouts per game and 2.2 walks per game. He also averaged giving up one HR per start and 4.2 hits.
In his nine starts since, he has looked much better. He has a 2.91 ERA, 3.07 FIP and has sixty-eight strikeouts to twenty-one walks. This averages out to 7.6 strikeouts per start to 2.3 walks per game. Strider is only allowing 0.6 HR and 4.7 hits per game in that span.
The biggest change in these two time frames is that Strider’s HR rate has dropped tremendously, and his strikeout rate has almost doubled. His hits and walks have stayed almost exactly the same. 4.2 hits per start is fine, but if he can get his walks down, he could become extremely lethal again.
Only two Brewers on the roster have ever faced Strider in the regular season. Andrew Vaughn is hitless in three at-bats and Christian Yelich is one for three with a single.
On the contrary, quite a few Braves have seen Jose Quintana multiple times. Quintana has had a solid year this season in terms of ERA with a 3.50. If we look further, he has been a bit fortunate. With a SO/BB ratio of only 1.69, WHIP of 1.351, FIP of 4.85 and xERA of 4.84, odds are that over a longer period of time his ERA is going to inflate.
One player to keep an eye on is Ozzie Albies. He has sixteen at-bats against Quintana and has a .500 average to include three HRs. Marcell Ozuna has also had sustained success against him. In twenty-six at-bats he has a .423 average, and 1.098 OPS. Michael Harris II has struggled in his thirteen at-bats against Quintana with a .539 OPS.
The Brewers’ bullpen has not been elite but have a top ten xFIP on the season. The Braves’ best chance of winning is to score early on Quintana and hope their bullpen can hold the lead. Of course, this is a pretty standard game script to follow to win, but it still applies in tonight’s game.
The first pitch is at 7:15 EDT
Game Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 7:15 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: FanDuel Sports South, FanDuel Sports Southeast
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan