At the 2021 MLB trade deadline, Mike Rizzo made the decision to blow it up. After a Kyle Schwarber led run in June, a mid July slump sent the Nationals tumbling out of the playoff picture. After nearly a decade of contention, Mike Rizzo decided to in his words ‘retool’.
The biggest trade of the deadline was when the Nats sent stars Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers for a monster prospect haul. The Nats received a pair of top 50 prospects in Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz. They also got a pair of interesting fliers in Gerardo Carillo and Donavan Casey. However, history has not been kind to this deal.
In my opinion, this is among the worst moves Mike Rizzo has made as Nationals GM. One of the issues with the move was Mike Rizzo misevaluating the timeline. He repeatedly called the Nationals strategy a retool when it was obvious a full rebuild was coming. You could see this thinking in the package. All of the players the Nationals received were seen as “high floor” guys who were already in the upper minors.
If Rizzo knew this was a full rebuild, he could have swung for a potential star that was closer to the big leagues. He did just that in 2022 when he got James Wood and Jarlin Susana from the Padres. Soto was such a good asset that he also got big league ready talent as well. While half a year of Max Scherzer and 1.5 years of Trea Turner won’t fetch you as much, it is shocking how much better the Padres package has turned out.
To the package itself, the two “interesting fliers” flamed out, which is a risk you run in this business. After all, when was the last time you heard about Aldo Ramirez, the pitcher the Nats got for Kyle Schwarber. However, the two big pieces were supposed to become cornerstones for the Nats. Neither one has been able to fully establish themselves as a productive MLB player.
First, lets talk about Josiah Gray. The right hander is a big personality who is an easy guy to root for. However, he has been very hit or miss on the mound. In 72 starts with the Nats, he has a 4.80 ERA with an alarming 5.50 FIP. In 2023, he was an all-star and put up an ERA below 4, but that was a bit of fools gold. His FIP was 4.93, showing that he was very lucky to have those solid surface level stats. The right hander has simply been too walk and home run prone.
2024 should have been a chance to build off his 2023, but he got hurt after two starts. Eventually he had to undergo Tommy John Surgery. He will not be back until late this season. Gray will return to a crowded rotation where a number of guys have passed him in the pecking order. Even finding a way back into the rotation could be tough for the 27 year old who should just be entering his prime.
While Gray is someone that is easy to root for, Keibert Ruiz might be one of the more frustrating players in Nationals history. He was the biggest name coming back to the Nats in the deal. If it weren’t for Will Smith, who was establishing himself as a top young catcher in baseball, Ruiz would have been the Dodgers catcher of the future. However, due to Smith’s emergence, the top catching prospect was now expendable.
In his time with the Nats, Ruiz has hit .249 with a .677 OPS. He is supposed to be an offense first catcher. His defense has been consistently brutal in his time in DC. That is why he has been a sub replacement level player in each of the last two seasons.
Those seasons were the first two in an 8 year contract extension he signed with the Nats after a somewhat promising 2022 season. While Ruiz certainly has talent as a hitter, he hasn’t been able to put it together. This is due to a horrid approach. He chases out of the zone way too much and it often seems like his only plan is to not strikeout. This is why he is a below average hitter despite hardly ever striking out. Ruiz is turning 27 in July, so he is not quite a youngster anymore
The two guys that were the main pieces of the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade are now two guys the Nats need to upgrade. There is a reason the Nats drafted two catchers in the first three rounds. That is not where you want to be just 3.5 years removed from the trade.
It looks even worse when you compare it to the other long time NL contender that blew it up at the deadline, the Chicago Cubs. Despite having lesser assets, almost all of whom were rentals, the Cubs got more bang for their buck. Pete Crow-Armstrong, who they got in exchange for Javier Baez, looks like he will be more valuable than anyone in the Turner package. He was a far out prospect, who was the type high risk, high reward swing Mike Rizzo should have taken. Instead, he fooled himself into believing a “retool” was all that was needed.
This is not to say that Mike Rizzo is a bad GM because he is not, but he messed up on this one. He misevaluated the situation and it led to a bad trade, something that is a rarity for him. Rizzo is one of the best deal swingers in baseball, but you can’t win them all. However, missing on a deal this important to the future of the franchise is a tough pill to swallow. I would love for this article to be totally proven wrong this season, but hope is fading.