It is no secret that the Nationals had an ugly season. Whenever your manager and GM are fired midseason, that is never a good sign. The Washington Nationals were 66-96 in 2025, which was actually a regression from the previous two seasons. With that in mind, it is pretty obvious that there were some ugly stats. I wanted to take a look at the 3 stats the Nationals need instant improvement on.
Paul Toboni is not going to turn this thing around in one season. This will not be a quick fix. However, I do think there is some low hanging fruit for improvement. When looking at the numbers, there were three stats that really jumped out to me. So let’s dive into those.
The first stat is nothing fancy, it is just the team ERA. In 2025, the Nationals had an ERA of 5.35 as a team. That is just an unacceptable number and is actually the worst in team history. Given that statistic, it should come as no surprise that the Nats allowed the most runs in team history.
You just can’t win with pitching that bad. The bullpen ERA was the worst in all of baseball and the rotation was not much better. The 2025 Nationals had a massive pitching problem and it is something Paul Toboni will have to solve.
A big theme of the last years of the Mike Rizzo era was that the team was behind the curve. That was clear to see in the pitching staff. We wrote a piece about how the Nationals were throwing more fastballs than ever in a league where the smartest teams are moving away from fastball usage.
Toboni’s Red Sox were one of those teams moving away from fastballs, so that could be a trend to look for next year. When guys like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker are throwing their mediocre heaters over 50% of the time, something isn’t right. That is why the Nationals had the second worst ERA in all of baseball, only behind a historically bad Rockies team that is at a disadvantage due to playing at altitude.
Nationals fans should not expect some elite staff next year, but a return to respectability would be nice. In 2024, the Nationals had a 4.30 ERA for the season. That is nothing special, but it is solid. The 2025 Nats would have won a lot more games if their ERA was 4.30 instead of 5.35. Getting back to that level seems like a realistic goal.
However, pitch usage is not the only reason the pitching staff suffered and that leads us to our second statistic. That stat is outs above average, where the Nats -32 mark was the second worst in all of baseball. The defense was just so bad in DC this year.
Defense is an interesting thing to look at because you can win without an elite defense. However, it is nearly impossible to win with a bad defense. Only one of the bottom 11 defensive teams in baseball made the playoffs this year. That team is the Mariners, who make up for it with a great pitching staff and a powerful offense.
Most playoff teams have at least an average defense out there. With the margins being so small in baseball, you can win a lot of games off of making a key play or two every game. That is not something the Nats were doing. In fact, they would lose games with their defense.
Two areas where the Nats were particularly bad defensively were in the middle of the infield and behind the plate. Unfortunately for the Nats, those are two of the most important defensive positions.
Up the middle, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. were both bad defensively. Having your shortstop and second baseman be bad defensively is tough to live with. It is alright to have one bad defender up the middle, but not two.
Abrams’ defensive struggles at shortstop have led a lot of people to wonder about a move to second base. The position just makes more sense for Abrams. His weaker arm and at times limited range really show up at shortstop. However, I think his athleticism could shine at the second base position. This is something for Paul Toboni to consider.
The Nationals having bad catching defense is nothing new. Keibert Ruiz has been a bad defensive catcher for most of his career, and nothing changed in 2025. Riley Adams has a rocket arm, but he is also a limited defender.
The framing was especially problematic. In 2025, the Nationals were the worst framing team in all of baseball. The inability to steal strikes really hurt an already poor pitching staff. The catching position as a whole was an absolute disaster for the Nats this season, especially early on. They were historically bad in the first half.
Paul Toboni needs to look to improve the defense this offseason. It is an easy and often inexpensive way to gain wins. Between finding better defenders and improving the team’s overall fundamentals, I think the defense can become respectable in 2026.
The home run was a problem for the 2025 Nationals both offensively and pitching wise. On offense, the team actually hit for more power. James Wood gave the team their first 30 home run hitter since 2019.
The Nats went from an abysmal 135 homers in 2024 to a less bad 161 long balls in 2025. Even with the improvement, the Nats still hit the 7th fewest homers in all of baseball. Not great, but still a step in the right direction.
However, the Nationals had a bigger home run problem in 2025 than 2024. How could that be if they hit for more power? That brings us to our last stat which is the home run differential. In 2024, the Nationals gave up 33 more homers than they hit, but in 2025 that number went up to 53.
Obviously, the reason for that is the pitching staff. In 2024, the Nats were good at limiting the long ball. The 168 homers they allowed was actually the 7th fewest in all of baseball. That helped make up for the fact the Nats were not homering.
However, in 2025, the Nats allowed 214 homers, which was the fifth worst in the league. With contact harder to come by than ever, the home run is such an important weapon. Giving up 53 more homers than you hit is an easy way to lose games.
The goal in 2026 should obviously be to prevent more homers. Sure, I would love for the Nats to hit more and they have the potential to do so, but power is a very expensive commodity. I feel like it would be unrealistic to expect the Nats to be top 10 in baseball in homers. However, we saw them be top 10 in fewest homers allowed in 2024. One of Paul Toboni’s goals should be to get that home run differential closer to zero and eventually have it become positive.
There were a lot of ugly stats for the Nats in 2025, but these three tell the story more than any other in my view. The Nats were not only bad at these things, but truly horrible. You cannot win while not pitching well, not fielding well and allowing way more homers than you hit. Paul Toboni needs to find a way to fix this equation in the next couple years for the Nats to get back to playing October baseball.