Atlantic Division Preview: An early exit may have been blessing in disguise for Lightning

It’s impossible to sell the idea of losing as a short-term fix to a team full of champions, but the Tampa Bay Lightning may have received a blessing in disguise. Tampa Bay was the league’s gold standard to start the decade, with two consecutive Stanley Cup victories in 2020 and 2021, led by a core that may end up sending a half-dozen players to the Hockey Hall of Fame. Last season, Tampa Bay was quickly dispatched by its state rival Florida Panthers in five games. And though this question has been posed before: does the Lightning’s star-studded core have more one Stanley Cup left in them? Count the Lightning out at your own peril.

Tampa Bay sported a plus-75 goal differential during the regular season, easily the best total in the Atlantic Division. Nikita Kucherov led the NHL in scoring with 121 points, while Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel both recorded 40-goal plus campaigns. Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel established themselves as one of the NHL’s premier shutdown duos, each gaining careful consideration for the Selke Trophy. Victor Hedman was great, while Ryan McDonagh may have submitted one of his best seasons in ages. And after a slow start to the year, Andrei Vasilevskiy turned back the clock and earned a Vezina finalist designation. It appeared that the Stanley Cup was within their sight again.

And yet, the Panthers eliminated the Lightning in five games. There’s no shame in losing to the champions, but the Panthers made short order of the Lightning while running their 1-2-2 forecheck to perfection. It was tough ending to a stellar regular season, but it was a long campaign and now the Lightning get to retool. Cirelli, Point and Hagel were major parts of Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off winning team, while Guentzel was a key part of the USA team that lost in the final. Getting additional rest will be key this season, with the Olympics taking place in February and several Lightning players are expected to play major roles for their country again. Florida will once again be Tampa Bay’s toughest test, but there’s ample reason to believe that the Bolts will be a leading contender for the Cup.

Tampa Bay scored the third-most goals at 5-on-5 (186) while allowing the sixth-fewest (144) last season. It operated the NHL’s fifth-best power play and sixth-best penalty kill, and received outstanding goaltending during the second half of the year. Jon Cooper is considered the NHL’s master tactician — although certainly Paul Maurice will give him a run for his money these days — and winning a third title would elevate this group into another tier in NHL history. This is a loaded Lightning group with several players firmly in their prime, including Kucherov, Point, Guentzel, Cirelli and Hagel. Was it just a matter of the Lightning running into the most inopportune opponent in the first round? This certainly seems to be the case, and the Lightning should once again be a leading contender for the top seed in the Atlantic.

It should be a tighter divisional race, as the Montreal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators will certainly benefit from their young core’s internal development. And it will be a long season once again, a race that the Lightning know how to win. Last spring’s exit won’t satisfy anything, but the Lightning went on a team trip to Sweden in the summer and have recharged. Tampa Bay’s talent, championship pedigree and extrinsic motivation make them one of the toughest outs going into the 2025-26 season.